Strong showing for EPP as Socialists suffer large losses

Provisional results

European voters will send 736 MEPs to the European Parliament in Brussels and Strasbourg, compared to 785 in the outgoing Parliament. The centre-right is on course to take the biggest number of seats, estimated at 267, according to projections made by the Parliament at 1am. The Socialists are on track for 159 seats. In third place are the Liberals with 81 seats.

The battle for fourth place will depend on the composition of the groups. The current provisional results suggest there will be 88 'other' MEPs, which includes the UK Conservatives and the Czech ODS party that plan to form a new rightist group. Some of these MEPs may remain 'non-aligned'. The Greens are on course for 54 seats. Among the smaller groups, the former Communists, trade unionists and leftists who make up the European United Left-Nordic Green Left (GUE-NGL) are expected to get 34 seats. The Union for the Europe of the Nations could take 35 seats and the Independence and Democracy group 18.

Low voter turnout

Turnout in the European Parliament will be a record low at 43%, according to an estimate issued by the Parliament itself this evening. A Europe-wide publicity campaign urging people to vote appears not to have arrested the trend of ever declining turnout. In 2004 when there were 25 countries in the EU, turnout was 45.7% (counting only the 15 countries that had been in the EU before 2004 it was 49.4%). In 1999 it was 49.8%.

If the prediction of a new low turns out to be accurate, then it will be seized upon by the EU's critics as further evidence of disenchantment with the EU institutions.