Balanced choices from an imbalanced European Union

Winners and Losers

- José Manuel Barroso was a big winner. An inter-institutional battle is under way between the Council of Ministers and the European Commission over the creation of the EU's diplomatic service, which will work to the foreign policy chief. Nominally, the foreign policy chief belongs to both institutions. But the choice of Catherine Ashton, a European commissioner since October 2008, puts a Commission person in charge of shaping the European External Action Service.
- Barroso will be equally comfortable with the appointment of Herman Van Rompuy, who is from the same political family, the EPP. Since neither Ashton nor Van Rompuy is a natural hogger of the limelight, Barroso need not fear being cast in the shade.
- Tony Blair's best chance of the presidency had lain in the big member states bouncing the others into the decision. If Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, Gordon Brown and Silvio Berlusconi had said that Blair was who they wanted, the pressure would have been hard to withstand. But the long, drawn-out ratification of the Lisbon treaty and the postponement of the decisions on appointments meant there was no element of surprise. An agreement emerged from the European Council meeting of 29 October – and the conclaves that preceded it – that the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) should put forward a candidate for Council president while the Party of European Socialists should put forward a candidate for the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. The decision by the EPP to covet the presidency post was a body-blow to the Blairite cause. (Note that the Benelux countries, which opposed Blair, are all led by prime ministers from the EPP family.)
- The big loser might prove to be Belgium. Herman Van Rompuy became prime minister less than a year ago, after Yves Leterme stood down to fight (successfully) allegations that he had interfered improperly in the merger between Fortis-BNP Paribas, a Belgian and a French bank. Van Rompuy portrayed himself as a reluctant prime minister. He had seemed to miss out on the premiership back in 1994 when he was well placed to take over if Jean-Luc Dehaene had become European Commission president, a move that was blocked by the UK. As Leterme returns to the premiership, Belgians are left to ponder whether the reflected glory that they enjoy from Van Rompuy's elevation is worth the loss of his leadership.