His intervention has put in doubt the assumption that the presidency would go next to an MEP from one of the countries that joined the European Union in 2004.
The centre-right European People's Party-European Democrats (EPP-ED) and the Party of European Socialists (PES) had privately agreed that over the Parliament's next five-year mandate the presidency would be shared. Jerzy Buzek, a former prime minister of Poland and an EPP-ED MEP, would be president for two-and-a-half years, followed by Martin Schulz, a German Socialist MEP who is currently leader of the Socialist group in the Parliament.
But Berlusconi has thrown the deal into confusion, announcing in a letter sent to national delegations of the EPP-ED group that Mario Mauro, an MEP since 1999, is his candidate for the presidency of the Parliament.
Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party is likely to become the largest national delegation in the EPP-ED group, following a merger on Sunday (22 March) with the post-fascist National Alliance, whose MEPs were previously in the sovereignist UEN group. The PDL could have as many as 40 MEPs after the elections in June, compared with 24 at present. The German delegation, currently the largest with 49 MEPs, is expected to shrink. The Christian Democrats (CDU) are expected to lose seats and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, will not qualify for the next Parliament if it cannot secure 5% of the national vote. Buzek's Civic Platform is expected to win around 22 seats in the next Parliament. The UK Conservatives are likely to leave the group.
The EPP-ED group is split, with the German delegation staunchly supporting Buzek's candidature, while the French are backing Buzek in principle but are anxious to preserve the post of group leader for their compatriot Joseph Daul.
EPP-ED sources say that if the group decided to back Buzek for the Parliament's presidency, Berlusconi would seek another important post for Mauro, such as the group leadership. A Parliament official said that Daul's election as chairman of the group in 2007 had been “embarrassingly difficult”. “If he faces a challenge from Mauro, it would be difficult again. He might then prefer to support Mauro for the presidency of the Parliament.”
If Mauro does become the EPP-ED candidate, then the PES will be in difficulty.
Schulz famously fell out with Berlusconi, when, during a debate in the European Parliament, the Italian prime minister likened Schulz to a Nazi concentration camp guard.
“Schulz cannot go back home to Germany and say that he made an alliance with Berlusconi, just to secure the post of president of Parliament. This would be unbelievable,” a senior Parliament official said.
A Socialist source said: “A controversial candidate from Italy would complicate things.”
Wilfried Martens, the chairman of the EPP political family, to which the EPP-ED group in Parliament belongs, hinted that the group should support Buzek, saying that it was “essential to ensure a balance between old and new member states”.
A senior official from Poland said: “If Poland does not have this post, this will complicate discussions about other EU or NATO posts.”
Graham Watson, the Liberal (ALDE) candidate for Parliament's presidency, stands to benefit from any disagreement. “Within the EPP, a stronger stream is running in favour of an EPP-ALDE agreement,” he said.
