MONTENEGRO
As in previous years, concerns over corruption and the independence of the judiciary in Montenegro are expected to be the main focus of this year's report. Montenegro has started the first stage of its accession talks and has made good progress, according to EU officials. But the political comeback, announced last month, of Milo Djukanovic , who dominated Montenegrin politics for two decades, could complicate talks.
Under Djukanovic, himself a successful businessman, close links were forged between business and the governing Democratic Party of Socialists, giving rise to persistent accusations of widespread corruption, stemming allegedly from the very top. Less than two years ago, Djukanovic resigned as prime minister and handed over to Igor Lukšic, a young politician with a reputation as a reformer. But Djukanovic‘s return to the top spot on the Socialists' list for the 14 October parliamentary election might yet confirm the perceptions or doubts of those who thought the change was purely cosmetic.
KOSOVO
The European Commission will next week adopt a study on whether Kosovo is ready to take the first formal steps on the way to eventual membership, negotiating a stabilisation and association agreement. That has inched closer with the ending in September of Kosovo's supervised independence. But as long as Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain refuse to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, they may halt the process at any point. High-level corruption and the weak rule of law continue to worry the Commission and the member states, as does the situation in north Kosovo, with its Serb majority, which is controlled from Belgrade.
ICELAND
Since June 2011, Iceland has opened 18 ‘chapters' of negotiations with the EU. It closed ten immediately – testament to the amount of EU legislation that it already had on its books by dint of its membership of the European Economic Area. Progress on the other eight chapters has been smooth, and a set of other chapters are likely to be opened before Icelanders vote in parliamentary elections in 2013. The tone of the Commission's report is, understandably, likely to be sunny. But there are clouds. In 2011, Össur Skarphédinsson, Iceland's foreign minister, said that he wanted by mid-2012 to start tackling the two most difficult of the 33 chapters, agriculture and fisheries. That has not happened. The political climate – in Iceland and several EU member states – is not conducive. When it will be is anyone's forecast.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
The main piece of good news on Bosnia this year has been the formation of a central government in January, following a general election in October 2010. But the ruling coalition started bickering as soon as it was formed. It is now in real danger of falling apart after Sunday's local elections (7 October) and the expected removal of Zlatko Lagumdžija, leader of the Social Democrats, from the office of foreign minister.
Bosnia missed the very first deadline on a new action plan agreed with the European Commission when it failed to adopt constitutional amendments at the end of August to implement a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights in 2009. Bosnia has not yet submitted a membership application to the EU, and the Commission is not encouraging it do so before reforms have been undertaken.
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