Liberal numbers

There is plenty of potential for backbiting and speculation at the annual congress of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform (ELDR) party next week (18-19 October).
Annemie Neyts looks likely to be re-elected to the presidency of the ELDR unopposed. But so far there are five candidates for four vice-presidencies: Jeannette Baljeu of the Dutch VVD, Wilfried Derksen of the Dutch D66, Markus Loening of Germany's FDP, Kristina Ojuland of Estonia's Reform Party and Elisabetta Zamparutti of the Radicali Italiani.
Meanwhile Graham Watson, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) group in the European Parliament is contemplating life after the June 2009 elections and wondering how best to break the stranglehold that socialist and centre-right MEPs have on the Parliament's top posts. The EPP-ED currently has 278 seats out of 785, while the socialists have 216 and ALDE 104.
Watson wants a repeat of 2002-04 when Irish Liberal Pat Cox, his predecessor as group leader, was president of the Parliament, after a deal with the centre-right EPP-ED group. Apparently, he would prefer a deal with the Socialists. But watch out for signs of Watson cosying up to the EPP-ED. No doubt it is coincidental that Commission President José Manuel Barroso (EPP) addressed the UK Liberal Democrats party conference last month.
Watson's difficulty might be how far some of his group like to tilt to the left. Some Italian members of the ALDE group from La Margherita party might be tempted to join the Party of European Socialists, once the Democratic Party is launched in Italy. Watson will have to keep his numbers up if he is to have any bargaining power. Opinion polls suggest that the ALDE group might be reduced by two after Romania's European elections on 25 November.