Could it be that almost half of Lithuania's 12 MEPs are about to leave the European Parliament? Several of them were prominent in the first round of elections to the national parliament on 14 October.
Viktor Uspaskich, a Liberal member of the European Parliament, is leader of the party that emerged ahead of the field – the confusingly named Labour Party. And it might form a coalition government with the Order and Justice party, which is led by Rolandas Paksas, an MEP in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy grouping.
In addition, three other MEPs were high enough on their parties' lists to swap their seats in the European Parliament for membership of the national parliament (the Seimas): Zigmantas Balcytis (Socialists and Democrats), Vilija Blinkeviciute (also S&D) and Valdemar Tomaševski (European Conservatives and Reformists).
But it is also possible that there will be no change at all after the second round on 28 October. For years, Uspaskich has laboured under accusations of shenanigans with party finances, and he might be prevented by Lithuanian law from taking up a seat in the Seimas.
The other MEPs have self-interested reasons to stay put. Ordinary members of the Seimas receive €2,000 per month before tax. Lithuanian members of the European Parliament receive €7,956,87 per month and do not pay income tax.